Vegas June 2017 (WSOP)

Day 9 - WSOP PLO Day 2, HORSE

Last Updated: 2017-06-23 16:39:11

Got a good night sleep Wednesday night, grabbed a bite at the brunch at the Aria buffet and headed over to the Rio.

138 players remaining, 131 players getting into the money.

The dynamic at this point in a poker tournament is pretty simple. If you have one of the 7 smallest stacks, you have to pick a spot to try to increase your stack because if you fold every hand eventually the blinds will eliminate you. If you are a few places above those bottom 7, you're essentially in the same boat because if any of those players increase their stack to be larger than yours, you could now be the one on the outside looking in.

If you have more chips than any of those poor folks but are anywhere in the bottom half of the chip counts your goal is to not bust out before anyone who has less than you PERIOD. Basically your job until the money bubble bursts is to fold, fold, fold until you are in the money.

If you're a relatively short stack, the chances are you're going to bust out somewhere in the bottom half. It's simple math. If you bust out 132-137 you get $0. If you bust out 100-131 you get $2250. But if you bust out 91-99 you only earn another $107. 82-90 only pays $264 more than 131st place. And so on. You don't get to roughly 5 figures until 15th place. It's an enormous mathematical mistake to blow $2250 chasing another $100-200. If you are, like me, 100th in chips then yes, you have a chance to win the whole thing because you are still alive but for the time being you have to focus on getting to the money.

If you are a bigger stack, your job is to relentlessly attack the smaller stacks because A) you want to bust out the really short stacks; B) You know that everyone who is a little above those short stacks cannot play any hand and has to fold and give you their chips. This is party time for you because you can increase your own stack with very little risk, as long as you avoid getting into confrontations with the other bigger stacks. It's a very interesting dynamic.

I'm 100th in chips. I'm in the group that needs to fold. Cards go in the air at noon.

First hand out of the gate is QQ22, which is a decent starting hand in Omaha. In Hold'em with a pocket pair you will flop a monster 3 of a kind hand one out of 8 times. With two pair in the hole in Omaha you will flop a set 24% of the time. It's a hand you want to play under any other circumstance. I fold. We did see a flop, I would have missed.

Took less than 15 minutes for three bustouts. They break up a table and we are 4 from the money.

10 minutes to the next one.

Half hour in I honestly would not have played a single hand I had been dealt to that point after the first hand. I pick up JJ77 with one suit (clubs I think). There is a minimum raise in front of me and I'm thinking about getting frisky...but someone else reraises before action is on me and I have to fold. Original raiser folds, a short stack just helped himself and probably saved me from myself...

Joann will tell you I was talking tough about not just playing to get into the money before I sat down. But as I'm sitting there the reality of the situation is setting in on me and I understand that I can't play even the biggest of monster starting hands if I get one.

I don't get anything else remotely playable, so it doesn't matter. I keep getting dealt easy hands to fold.

Then we get down to the money bubble after bustout number 6 came 45-50 minutes into the first level. We are hand for hand. They've changed how they do hand for hand at the WSOP since the last time I got into the money. What hasn't changed is that every table deals one hand at the same time, then stops playing until every table finishes that one hand. Then we all play another hand...

What's changed is that they keep the clock running. But if the level you are on ends and you're supposed to go to the next level they reset the clock and play the same level again for up to another hour.

If someone busts out in that hour, no matter how far into it you are, they immediately move on to the next level but again start with a fresh one-hour clock. If you actually get through another full hour (and it will happen in bigger tournaments) then the blinds go up during hand for hand.

And that's exactly what happened. Level 12 should have started at 1pm, but we stayed at level 11. It only took 10-15 more minutes tho for the bubble to burst, so about 20-30 mins to get rid of one player.

Congratulations, you are in the money!!!!

Now there is a new dynamic at work. You've gotten your $2249, your goal is now to see how much more you can make. Now it is foolish to fold, fold, fold just to chase another $107 when there is a $213K top prize at stake. If you are a short stack your job now is to double up, then double up again and then double up again after that. If you are a big stack your job is to protect it while trying to increase it. If you're 5th in chips you have a long, long way to go to get to a 5-figure payout, but likewise it would be idiotic to go from 5th in chips to out 120th and walk away with $2250.

As a result, we go from a slow painful process where everyone is trying to get into the money to a wild process where everyone needs to get their chips in to try and get more.

It took us over an hour to eliminate the first 7 people and get into the money. We lose 23 more in about 30 minutes. And I've lost about half my stack folding my way to the money. I had no cards so it wasn't hard to do, but that doesn't mean it didn't hurt...

Finally I get playable cards!

I raise out with JJ86 with two suits. Nobody calls I steal some blinds.

Raise out again with 89JA with a suited ace. An OK hand, but if I can get heads up with someone and a chance to double up I'll take it...but I gladly take blinds when I get no action again.

Then I get a really big hand in Omaha. QQJT with two suits. I badly want someone to go over the top of me and put me all in with a chance to double up...but again no action. But, I've chipped back up to 17,000 or so. I can't be too unhappy...

I'm in the big blind, someone early to act just calls the blind, someone else also calls and I look down at 3-3-X-X and knuckle to see a flop. I don't remember the other two cards I only know I'd have folded to even a minimum raise because it was a junky hand.

Flop comes 9-3-10. I flopped bottom set with a short stack. I raise out, original limper puts me all in, other guy folds, I call. Here's the chance to double up I was looking for...

He rolls over K-J-Q-9. Plugging in random, unhelpful cards for me in the poker odds calculator puts me right at about 60-40 to win the hand. There is nothing more I could ask for.

King on the turn. I'm now a 9-1 underdog because only a Q, J or 3 will give me a full house or quads to save me. K or 9 gives him a better full house. No luck and I'm out in 101st place. Just two away from that extra $107 :-)

I'm just over half way through the trip. My plan was that if I cashed and busted fairly quickly I would walk directly from the payout cage to the buyin cage and buy into the 3pm HORSE tournament. Actually faced with the situation I started to waffle.

Joann and I sat down and did the math. I've made enough money that if I don't play in HORSE I've roughly guaranteed a break-even on the trip adding up not only buyins so far but also buyins the rest of the way minus prizes I've won.

But I didn't come here to just try to break even, I came here to win and you can't win if you don't play. And so far I'm doing ok, wouldn't you say?

Where's the buyin cage?

3PM start, 15,000 chips.

I sit down at my table and the guy immediately to my right looks really familiar. He's a real nice guy, starts chatting me up, asks what I do for a living.

When someone asks you what you do for a living, what's the first thing you say after you answer? Generally you ask the same question back at them, right? Only polite, right?

He says he mostly plays poker, but he's also a finance guy.

Someone comes by and says "Hey Tom".

It's Tom fucking Schneider. Guess who's the noob at the table. Yeah, yeah, he doesn't exactly have the name recognition of Hellmuth, Ivey or Negraneau. But trust me, there weren't a whole lot of people in that room who didn't know exactly who I was sitting next to...and I asked him what he did for a living. Dumbass...

Not much going on in the first half hour or so but playing stud high I pick up rolled up trip 7s. As mentioned in a previous BLOG the odds of having rolled up trips are 1 in 424. I had had them like 5 times in about 3.5 hours of poker and to this point they hadn't gone great for me.

Did this time, guy called me down on every street and I won a nice pot. Gave some back tho and I'm a hair below starting stack at 14675 after the first level.

Nothing interesting going on in level 2, but I chip up a little to 15575 at the first break.

Not long after the light started to come on about who was sitting next to me playing stud high I look down at JAJ with a jack exposed. I raise out and Tom comes along for the ride. He was showing a King but at least one other King was out so I felt good about Jacks. That and he never went over the top of me.

Basically I bet out every street catching straight or flush cards on every street. By 6th street I had a pair, an Ace (and no other Jacks or aces out so very live) a gutshot straight draw and a flush draw. Unfortunately he paired his King but I know absolutely he doesn't have three of them because the other two are gone...so I have a ton of outs even tho I'm behind at the moment. And who knows, if all he has is the pair of Kings and I'm barreling on every street maybe if I miss he'll believe I have KK beat and fold to a river bluff.

River gives me the flush, Tom calls me down and I win a nice pot. That put me over 20K.

Gave some back on an Omaha 8/b hand when I started with A235 with a suit but whiffed. 18825 at the end of 3.

Called down a multi-way pot with just a low draw in stud 8/b. Never play for half, I always say. But in a multi-way pot half can still be lucrative and the pot odds were good. I hit second nut low and raked in some chips. That got me to 21K.

Then I pick up rolled up trip 3s again in stud 8/b, other guy started out with high cards so I thought I was scooping, but he actually missed his high hand and drew out a low instead to chop. Then in Omaha 8/b I win a small pot when by A4KK with a suit scoops on a board of 4567K. Dunno how it's possible in a 3-handed pot nobody had a low or a straight but I will take it.

23100 at the second break.

Soon after the break in Omaha 8/b I look down at AQJ2 with a suited ace. I flop a nut flush draw and a broadway straight wrap. Huge hand in any Omaha variety. I hit and get paid off.

One thing I haven't mentioned is that throughout this tournament to this point I'm making an occasional call that's probably not overly wise on cheaper betting rounds with the intention of quickly folding unless I catch perfect. I've also made a point of quickly folding my bluffs instead of tanking like a lot of people do.

There's a reason for this. Most of the people in this tournament know each other. Average knuckleheads buy into $1000 and $1500 No Limit Hold'Em tournaments. Your average tourist player doesn't show up and drop a few grand on HORSE. So I'm trying to let them know that yes I bluff. I don't want them to realize I'm as tight a player as I am. I want doubt to be in their mind.

That last hand was an example. I don't know what he had, but he probably shouldn't have called me down whatever it was. Here's another...

First a strategy tip. Most of the time someone has a pair in 7-card stud you can see one of their pair cards. When someone pairs that first exposed card, called the "door card", alarm bells should be blaring off in your head. There is a very good chance that person just made 3 of a kind, which usually is the best hand at the end.

And if I'm the tightest guy on the planet and I pair my door card you should run away very quickly.

Well looking at 8A8 with an 8 exposed I lead out. I catch an 8 on 4th street, bet every street, get called down every street and win a nice pot. Don't know what he had, but he should have had alarm bells going off...

I pick up two more big pots including one where I catch "the wheel", A2345 on 5th street for a nut low and a straight in stud 8b. Guy called me down on every street...

I should have won three of the four pots I just talked about, but if they know I'm tight I never get called all the way down by them.

I peak at 33,000 chips at that moment, down to 32,900 at the end of the 5th level.

That was the high point of the tournament for me. At this point Tom and I are the chip leaders at the table. We're mostly staying out of each other's way but for a while the table leader was whichever one of us either last won a hand or wasn't the one who gave up on a hand was the leader at the moment.

But it all started to go south for both of us in the 6th level.

Razz does it to me again. I have a bad runout and lose some chips to be under 30K for the first time. Then same game a micro-stack (like under 2000 chips) had already shown a willingness to fold good looking up cards facing pressure even after bringing in. So it folds around to me, I have a 3 showing but have a 73 underneath (that's bad in Razz). I decide to see if I can steal since Tom has a face card between us.

Nope, he's willing to gamble. He's all in, I call. He shows 942.

Razz is strictly lowball stud. Worst hand wins, ace is low, straights and flushes don't count as straights or flushes. A2345 is the best possible hand. So I have a pair, but he's drawing to a 9 so I think we're actually close to 50-50.

Well...I draw out a full house 3s full of 7s and he wins with a "jack low" because my worst possible hand is a pair of threes. He actually drew out 2-pair, which means he can put together 5 unpaired cards to make a low of something like J964A. Then yet another Razz hand I start out with A64, a really good starting hand...and my board runs out Q-J-A and I have to give up on it.

Fucking Razz. The game gets me every time I play in a HORSE tournament. I should just fold every goddam hand when we're playing the game.

Sigh.

That got me down to 27700. Then I lost another huge pot in a Stud high hand where I caught two pair on 4th street, Kings and 8s with KK showing (so my opponent should be very afraid of trip Kings!!!) but oddly raising out every street. I'm just calling.

Well it turns out he caught two pair Aces and Kings because he started out with hidden kings!!! Dammit. He also caught one of my two 8s along the way so I literally had one out the whole time and didn't know it.

In one level I go from part time chips leader to only 20,500 at the next break. Ouch.

Back from break and David Benyamine fills the emptied seat from that micro-stack I had doubled up earlier. He didn't last much longer. I had no trouble realizing who it was that sat down that time...

$7.3 million in known career earnings. My buddy Tom only has $2.4 mil in known earnings. Nothing tough about this table.

Meanwhile, Tom is following me down the hole. Basically the two of us were playing exactly the same game. We both ran up big stacks, we both took some rough beats and had hands not work out, and we both dropped back down around 20K around the same time. And we were playing roughly the same number of hands.

I drop as low as 17700, close to original starting stack.

Thought I was going to get back in the right direction in a stud 8/b hand. Playing 4 handed my board looked like a low draw but I was really looking for a flush. Well I did catch a mediocre low and the flush. Someone who could only have a high hand raised out, I raised to try and drive out any slightly better low hands...and I did get rid of the other two. And my low was of course good against him...but my flush was no good against his very hidden full house. I only get half. Then I take out a short stack sucking out in Hold'Em with AJ vs KK, Jacks on the flop and the turn send him packing. Back up to 21K. 19700 at the 4th break.

So I'm bummed about the big drop in the 6th level but I still have plenty of chips.

399 players, 232 left, 60 get paid.

I'm still probably 4th in chips at my table. I'm in a good place.

Then I pick up rolled up trip threes again!!! Except it's Razz. That sucks!!! Fold...

Lose 3K on another Razz hand where I start out with A26, excellent starting hand...then pair my deuce and pair my ace and have to fold. Fucking Razz.

Lose a little more on a stud hand, get hit over the head with bring-ins (which is a forced bet in stud games, worst hand on the initial deal is required to make a small bet). Before I know it I've dropped to just 12K.

Then 11K as I can't find a playable hand.

Get back up to 15K when QQ holds up in stud 8/b against a guy showing AKQ4. Don't ask me how he can't beat my queens but I'm not complaining. 15K. 14900 end of level 9.

Tom and I start to commiserate about our poor fortune the last couple of levels. He's down around starting stack as well.

Then I tried to steal blinds with an all high-hand in Omaha 8/b. If I hit the flop I'm almost certainly scooping instead of splitting. But the flop is all low, I have to give it up and I'm down to a paltry 9K.

I then get dealt quad 10s in Omaha 8/b. Worst thing that can happen in that game...can only use two from your hand. I have a pair of 10s and cannot improve. Blinds knock me down under 8K.

Our table breaks. Toms around 8K as well. I get to go sit directly across from Jason Mercier. Total live earnings $18.4 million. Welcome to the table.

We play Omaha 8/b and I look down at AA4T double suited. As good a hand as you can ask for badly short stacked. I raise out, get two callers.

Board comes 9QJ49. No betting on any street. Guy who had called my raise had KK93. Awful starting hand in this game...but he took the pot and I was scratching the felt at 3500 in chips.

Next hand I look down at QQ75 double suited. That's not horrible, if I can get heads up against someone with an ace, chances are if they hit their ace I'll get the low and if they don't catch an ace my QQ will be good and maybe scoop.

But Mercier is one of the callers, he had a junky King high hand but called anyway and caught a King to bust me.

22 minutes from making Day 2, but honestly I would have rather either doubled up a couple of times or busted out rather than come back the next day with a micro stack still quite a ways from the money. There were probably 160 left when I busted out, so still 100 from the money.

Instead I can now move on to the next one instead of hoping for a very improbable comeback.

So Friday it will be Pot Limit Omaha 8/b at the Rio. And I need to get going...