 Vegas June 2019 (WSOP) |
| Day 13 - Aria daily |
| Last Updated: 2019-06-18 11:19:14 |
| You gotta win some flips...
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| Ultimately the reason there's so much variance in tournament poker, or at least one of the very major ones, is that inevitably you're going to get all your chips in on a "coin flip" at some point in the tournament. Almost certainly more than once. Not a perfect flip, probably something like 52/48 odds or 55/45 or along those lines, so not really coin flips but we still call them "flips". And you probably have to win a few of them to get to serious money.
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| Sometimes you're going to win more than your share, sometimes you're going to lose more than your share. That's the variance part. It all evens out over time for all of us. But probability says that they're not going to simply alternate. There will be times when you'll lose a bunch and times when you win a bunch.
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| In poker, those times when you lose a bunch can really suck...
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| Lunch at the Aria Buffet. I was saying to Joann at the pool earlier in the day that I'm still interested in going to the buffets but I don't like them nearly as much as I used to.
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| Selections have been reduced, they barely ever change anything day-to-day and in some cases (particularly Bellagio, which used to be the best buffet anywhere on the strip) they don't even bring you your drinks any more, they've gone self-serve drink stations. So now I'm tipping for the busboy and that's it? And the last time we were at Bellagio Buffet they were in the process of replacing the ice cream machines (was the best ice cream on the planet!) with what appeared to be a gelato station. They were in transition at the time, we haven't been back yet.
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| That said, the buffets we do frequent are still a good meal and still a good way to get your money's worth. And I'll still eat at them. Just not over and over...
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| Late register into the 11am, take my seat.
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| Raise a couple of times with K-J suited from position, flop two pair the first time and river a flush (after being bet into on every street after the flop) the second time. Easy game.
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| Lead out with KK, get raised, folds to short stack who goes all-in, go over the top, reraiser folds.
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| He has A-J offsuit.
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| A38 flop. Grr. But ... all clubs and look there, I have Kc. 11 outs twice! King on the river, ship it!
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| Build my 25k starting stack up to 50k and things seem to be great.
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| Unfortunately as good as that sounds, I was at an incredibly tough table position.
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| Directly to my left is a big stack, directly to his left is another big but not-as-big stack. Both guys tended to be a little sticky (bigger stack moreso) and after a while the bigger stack started blatantly 3-betting 100% of my raises.
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| Once that started I'm completely handcuffed. I couldn't raise any hand without playing for a 3-bet out of position. Ugh.
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| So instead I did a lot of limping and calling raises, waiting for opportunities.
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| Call a raise with 10-9 suited, flop comes 8-9-T two spades. Short stack shoves, I reshove, big stack goes in the tank and folds claiming K-J.
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| Short stack has A-J of spades, straight draw/flush draw. I'm a 50/47 dog with a 2.5% chance of a chop. I lose the flip and 13k out of my stack.
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| 33,600 at the break, I'll take it.
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| Blinds I think are 500/1000 when we come back, I look down at KK again and make it 3000 to go.
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| Big stack immediately makes it 10k to go. This was when the blatant 3-betting really got bad, I had gotten some through him to this point.
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| Folds around to cutoff or button who calls 10k. I go all in. Big stack quickly folds. Other guy goes in the tank a long time, at least I know he doesn't have AA. Eventually he folds and claims queens, very believable.
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| I increase my stack by 2/3 without a fight. I would have gladly taken the 80/20 but I'll just as gladly take the chips.
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| Next hand raise out with 22, big stack just calls (probably for the last time), another caller. Flop T8T and I'm first to act, I give up.
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| Very next hand A-Q off, I again make it 3k to go. Big stack immediately makes it 8k. I call. I thought about shoving right there to send a message.
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| Flop 3-A-3, I check to induce, he checks behind. I lead out for 12k on the blank turn and he goes away. There was a 0% chance I wasn't willing to get all my chips in if he'd tried to go over the top.
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| Got me up to 60k!
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| But I raise out a couple of times, he three bets me every time. I message Joann that the next time I raise out it will be with a hand I'm willing to 4-bet shove with (with a much wider range than I would ordinarily 4-bet shove with...).
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| Blinds and other action drop me back under 50k.
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| I'm in the big blind, monster stack messes up and thinks he's in the blind after the deal and tosses out a call. Oops. The call stands. We're 9 handed at this point (started 10-handed, after buyin/rebuy period ends they drop the tables to 9 at Aria for the morning tournament) and only one person folds preflop. Close enough to a family pot!
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| I've got J-T of clubs. I did seriously consider a huge bet to try and take it down but decide if I do that monster stack will probably shove over me so let's just see the flop...
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| Flop comes Jack high. Small blind checks, I bet about 2/3 of the pot, everyone folds! Big blind special!
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| 55,500 at the next break.
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| So we're down to 63 after the break paying 21 places. Getting close!
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| Pick up 99, I raise, monster goes over the top. I'm prepared to shove...but someone else goes all in before I have a chance. I fold, tight player, I'm either flipping or way behind. I don't see over the top 4-bet all in from that guy with 88 or less.
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| Call a raise with TT, flop a set, check/call a c-bet, check-raise on a blank turn for half of my remaining stack at the time and he folds. Almost double-up to 90K.
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| I get moved as our table gets broken up. I never did get a chance to go over the top of that guy a little light.
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| Raise out with 44, short-but-not-too-short stack goes all in and gets called by a super short stack. Have to fold, can't call with 44 for half my stack in that spot. AK vs A2 (A2 super short), 4 on the flop (grrrr) 2 on the river. Tiny stack doubles up.
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| KJ suited again, I raise out preflop, get one caller. Flop 9-6-6, I c-bet, he calls. Turn is a Jack. I bet again (nice when you bluff and then catch!), he shows a 9 and folds.
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| Exactly 100K at the next break after winning the chip race. I grab a quick meal at the Aria Patisserie. 42 left paying 21 places...
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| Steal 10k in blinds with Q-J offsuit, then raise out with K-Q suited and get shoved by the now shorter stack from my 44 hand. She has 66. I lose the flip and 37k out of my stack.
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| Lose some blinds and I'm down to 15 big blinds. Folds around to me on the button and I look down at A-9 suited. Only two people to get through to pick up 2.5 blinds so I go all in to steal ... and the big blind (same from 44 and and flip I'd just lost) wakes up with two kings. Done in 31st, 10 from the money. She pretty much got my whole stack in the space of 4-5 hands.
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| Straight over to the counter to buy in to the 7pm.
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| I was alternate #18, the tournament wasn't going for very long but still took over half an hour to get seated. That's fine, I would have been happy to wait another half hour being honest. I'm starting to like skipping a round or four at Aria.
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| Pick up AA early on but don't get a lot for them.
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| Blow a chunk of my stack when I button raise with J-7 suited and catch a jack-high flop, but after check/calling me on two streets the small blind shoved on the 10 river. I fold.
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| But just before break I call a raise with J-T in the big blind, flop comes J-T-2. I check/call flop and turn bets, he goes away when I lead out on the jack river.
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| Win another nice pot when I call a raise with A-J suited, float when I miss the flop with position (all undercards) and then catch a jack on the turn. He check/folds to my bet.
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| Build up a decent stack, with position and determined to add more 3-betting to my game a guy makes it 2200 to go and I 3-bet with K-Q suited on the button. He just calls.
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| Flop comes Q-4-8 two clubs. He checks, I go all in, he thinks it over for a bit and calls. Rolls over A-K of clubs.
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| I'm a 53.5/46.5 favorite.
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| I lose the flip. Done.
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| It's tough when you lose every flip. Sooner or later I'm going to start winning some of them.
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| Hopefully today when I take my last but cheapest shot at a bracelet.
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| $600 buyin NLH/PLO at the Rio today. 30,000 chips (deepstack!), tho only 30-minute levels instead of the usual 60. Single rebuy so it won't be an "all-in so I can double or rebuy over and over" zoo. People should be playing seriously with their stacks.
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| And I get to play PLO one more time! |
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