 Vegas June 2025 (WSOP Part 1) |
| Days 4-5 - A quiet day off, MGM TD Mix |
| Last Updated: 2025-06-21 14:30:52 |
| Is cashing at a 50% clip any good in poker tournaments? Asking for a friend...
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| I promised Joann that if she came out I would guarantee her one day off from poker, and I lived up to that on Thursday. We had breakfast at The Henry in Cosmopolitan, walked through the Conservatory at Bellagio, went back to the room ... and spent the entire day just hanging out. Reading, watching streaming, catching up on stuff, etc. Got takeout from Posh Burger, so I don't think Joann left the room again for the rest of the day.
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| And Joann badly needed a day to not worry about anything.
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| Some of you may have heard that we had a wedding in the family recently! Well, Joann took on the job of wedding planner and while the event couldn't have come off any better as you can imagine it was quite an added load on her shoulders on top of all the stuff we already deal with day to day.
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| Now that that's over, she needed a couple of days of "nothing."
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| Friday we took even more time to get going. Lunch at Salt & Ivy and we set out for MGM Grand and the Triple Draw Mix tournament I was supposed to play in Tuesday but had been moved to Friday, replacing the PLO8 tournament I was supposed to play in Friday ...
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| Joann did stop at NYNY to play a little slots while I kept walking to buy into the tournament. When she was done with slots she continued to MGM and hung out for a little while by me, but for her it was another much needed quiet day in the room with a bottle of wine and a thick-ass book to read.
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| For me, I circled this one on the calendar the moment it was announced. I'm about as confident in my triple draw game as I am of anything in poker these days.
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| Three different games...
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| Badugi - Ace is low, you get four cards, you get to draw three times, the goal is to get the four lowest cards with all four suits and no pairs. If nobody has all four suits and no pairs, then you play the best three cards of three suits with no pairs. A234 with all four suits is the best possible hand, A-2-3-blank with three suits is the best possible three card hand.
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| A-5 Triple Draw - 5 card draw, three draws, aces are low, goal is to get the five lowest cards with no pairs. Straights and flushes are ignored, A-2-3-4-5 is the best possible hand (and I saw someone win a hand in this tournament with A-2-3-4-5 all clubs because the flush is ignored!)
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| 2-7 Triple Draw - goal is to get the worst possible poker hand. 5 card draw, three draws as with the others, aces are high, straights are flushes count as straights and flushes (they are very bad), 2-3-4-5-7 with at least two suits is the nuts.
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| In all these games you assess hands based on comparing the highest value card in each hand, then move on to the next highest card, etc. For example in A-5 TD 7-5-4-3-2 beats 7-6-3-2-A because 7-5 is better than 7-6, the fact that one person had an ace doesn't matter.
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| As with any "limit" poker games, bluffing is incredibly circumstantial and much of the betting is automatic.
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| If I have the betting lead and I'm drawing fewer cards than you, I am betting after the draw 100% of the time. Anyone who doesn't is likely making a mistake. It doesn't matter if I improved, I started out better than you, I'm a favorite, I'm betting.
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| And, unlike No-Limit Hold'Em you can't just go all in and put pressure on other players. Most of the time whoever you are betting into is getting the correct odds to call you if they have any kind of hand, so if they are at all competent it's hard to bluff.
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| That said, there are times to bluff! And you have to be able to identify them!
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| 30 minute levels, breaks every 4th level.
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| The first four levels were not super kind to me until very late. I'd only dragged a few pots, one of them a Badugi pot where I made a "crying call" when I was drawing with 7-4-A. The problem with this hand is that if there's significant action and it comes down to my 3-card hand vs someone else's 3-card hand (because neither of us has all four suits or pairs) 7 is probably not going to be good enough. You really need to catch.
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| Well I caught a Jack of whatever suit I needed, and they led into me and they showed down J-7-5-2! My 4 beats his 5, ship it! And it turned out had neither of us caught my "iffy" 3-card was good all along.
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| But just before the first break I got stuck in one of those situations you want to avoid - a raising war with a non-premium hand. Playing A-5 with 2-4-7-X-X (if you can make a hand where the highest card is seven you're winning the pot most of the time) someone raised out and I called. Another caller then around to a woman who re-raised. Original raiser made it 4 bets, I called (I think we were 4-handed so already a big pot!) and when it got to her she capped the betting (a bet and four raises is the max for 5 total bets). Everyone calls and she draws three!
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| Folks, there are no two cards in any draw game that are good enough to cap the betting if you are pitching the rest. If you are the one raising and re-raising you had better be drawing 1 to the nuts, a 6 (in this game) at worst.
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| Ever.
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| Maybe, maybe if you have A-2-3 and you're folding two cards that are also aces, 2s or 3s (because you are eliminating cards other people would want, so you know they can't have them or get them!). This was outright foolishness...
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| Especially not 4 handed! Your equity is so, so low. You are almost certainly the worst hand!
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| Well I catch a 3 to make 2-3-4-7-X, more betting, too big of a pot to go away now! Someone bets and everyone calls. Everyone draws at least one more card. I spike a 5 on the final draw!
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| Now I lead out confident I'm good, only one caller who rolls over 7-6-5-4-2.
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| Ship it!
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| On the strength of that pot I go from being below starting stack to 38,100 at the break after starting with 25k. Nice start!
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| With these games your stack is going to go up and down, you just have to learn to accept that. I miss a couple big draws, lose some chips, but hit a draw in a 3-way pot and I'm back up over 40k. That's how it goes.
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| Oh and they're pulling people from random tables (they always grab the big blind, but randomly pick which table) to form new tables as new people buy in. I moved twice just to make new tables.
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| Only 22500 going into the next break, not ideal. Lost more pots than I won after the above.
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| Things really start to go south, I get down to 7500 in chips. Nothing was working ... until ...
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| 3-way pot playing A-5, I'm all in and I draw out 7-6-3-2-A which is good against 7-6-4-3-2 and 8-5-[didn't show].
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| We switch to 2-7 and in back to back hands I drew out 8-7-[something] which is often good, but also often beaten by a better hand ... but both times it was enough and in the space of 3-4 hands I went from 7500 chips to 43k.
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| Just like that...
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| Buyins had ended at the last break. We have 126 players, 76 remain, we're paying 16 places and I'm sitting on about an average stack.
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| I've said this before, but if you have right at an average stack it really means you are probably around the top 1/3 of chip stacks because there is usually a small number of really big stacks and a big number of shorter stacks. Intuitively you'd think being average would be in the middle, but that's not how the chips are really distributed.
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| Not much going in the rest of that round or Badugi, but back to A-5 I started with A-A-3-4-5. This time I'm raising out and we end up capping it 3 handed. I catch a face card, bet, two callers, catch another 3, bet and still two callers, spike a 2 on the river for the nuts!
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| 63,500 now.
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| They've been breaking tables, which means me moving again, but now because the tournament is consolidating. And this is something else about playing this game in a tournament. In Hold'Em you play 9-handed, sometimes 10 if they're trying to fit more people into the room.
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| These games are 6-max. Well, the problem is that instead of breaking up tables every time you get 9 people out, now you're breaking tables every time 6 people bust out. There is a lot of movement!
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| But at this point I notice something very strange. There are three monitors showing the clock. The clock is in sync on all of them, prizes are same, entries are same ... but one says there are 78 players remaining, one says 72 and one says 69.
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| I stand up and count tables and there are 10 tables of six with an empty seat here and there. More than 54, but less than 60. They're all wrong!
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| Win a couple big pots in 2-7, one catch the second nuts, but give back when I can't make my draw to an 8-7 and lose to a 9 (I was drawing very live!). That would have been a huge pot for me if I could have spiked a 3rd hand in a row!
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| But, still, 95k at the time, win a couple small pots, 104k at the next break. 65,500 average, 40 left (my own count! Clock still wrong, but at least they've shut two of them down so we only have one).
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| 24 from the money...
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| Win some, lose some, fall down to 60k.
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| Pull off a big bluff in 2-7. I'm drawing to an 8-6, we're both drawing one every draw and on the last draw I pair my 8. Literally the worst card I can get because even if he pairs he probably started with 4 cards 7 or lower and his pair will beat my pair every time. I literally cannot win a showdown...
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| He had had the betting lead, I was check-calling and he was betting every street. But I lead into him with surely the worst hand. He thought a real long time before folding and later told me he had caught an ace. Perfectly timed bluff!
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| Had he called I would have been crippled. Instead 80k and 14 from the money.
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| They've gotten better about updating the clock, but I see two empty chairs so really 12 away.
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| Win a small pot, up to 103k, now four empty chairs. 10 from the money.
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| Win a big 3-way pot, lose a heads-up pot. 120k. We are down to four tables of 6. 8 from the money.
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| Two more walk away empty handed at other tables. Then another.
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| We lose a micro-stack from our table and we have another guy who is on fumes. 4...
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| Win a small pot, see a couple more leave. We are down to 18 players.
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| Full table redraw. I'm sitting on 117k, one guy at my table doesn't even have enough chips for a big blind. I can almost certainly just fold my way to the money at this point.
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| But what fun would that be?
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| And boom, we lose two players in 10 minutes and we are in the money!!!!
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| Now we look at pay bumps. 16th pays a hair over double the original buyin. Next three places pay $180 more than that, the three places after that pay another $190. So outlast six and not even another $400. But ... I'm guaranteed a little over double my buyin no matter what happens.
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| I go on a serious roll at this point!
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| A 3-card A-3-4 was a winner in Badugi to get me to 220k with the average now at 225.
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| Lose a big pot but take out a short stack so get back to 181k.
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| Pull off another bluff in a similar circumstance above. Drawing to a great 2-7 hand I get a face card, pair, pair. Not great, but tight player also drawing every street so betting is the only way to win the pot and I pull it off again.
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| Then I catch an 8 Badugi in a massive pot and I'm over 400k.
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| Go card dead for a little while, then things really go south as people are busting out around me. I make an 8-5-something in A-5 but lose to someone who drew out the nuts. Then another hand to the same guy where this time I catch a 7 but he has a better 7 and I'm down to 100k.
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| Another bustout and there are only 7 of us left. Although it's a 6-max tournament when they get down to 7 they do put us all at one table. We draw for seats.
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| I'm down to 95k and blinds are such that I will be all in whatever hand I decide to play next.
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| But there is actually a guy with less chips than me. We're starting with 2-7.
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| Sit out the first hand, on the second hand the shorter stack is first or second to act and raises out. I look down at 2-4-7-X-X. A two card draw to a seven is good enough for me!
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| Another raise to 60k before me, I make it 80k to go, another person calls and the short stack calls. He's got a 5k chip behind, I have 15k behind.
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| Three of us draw two, one draws one. I get two bad cards but I'm not going away and lead out with my 15k, everyone calls including the shorter stack. Big main pot, 30k side pot.
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| Everyone draws the same, I whiff again, checks around.
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| Everyone draws the same again, I catch an ace, I only win if everyone pairs up ... one person did, but the other big stack in the hand spiked an 8 high hand and takes us both out.
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| I had more chips, I get 6th place for a little over 4.5 times my original buyin.
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| Not a bad day!
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| As I'm finishing this up Joann is sitting in United Club on her way home and I'm having my morning tea and trying to decide what I'll do for lunch.
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| I'm up a decent amount for the trip, but today is my big buyin bracelet event! 9-Game Mix at the WSOP at 2pm. |
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